Valid: Fri 30 Jan 2015 06:00 to Sat 31 Jan 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 29 Jan 2015 15:38
Numerous level 2 areas were issued for parts of the CNTRL-Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain.
Numerous level 1 areas were issued for SW France, parts of Portugal, Spain and the W/CNTRL Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain, isolated large hail, strong to severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk.
A large vortex is centered over Denmark. Numerous smaller-scale vortices rotate around that feature and bring unsettled conditions for most of Europe.
Low geopotential heights, cold mid-levels and hence rather steep lapse rates result in widespread low to moderate offshore CAPE build-up. A huge lightning area was issued for active marine convection. Strongest storms bring marginal hail and gusty winds.
Focus for severe will be southbound moving cold-front over the W/CNTRL Mediterranean during the daytime hours. Impressive low-tropospheric prefrontal flow advects a moist and unstable air mass to the east and results in a prolonged period of convectively enhanced precipitation. Models agree in numerous QPF maxima over SW-Italy and along the E-Adriatic and Ionian Sea. Rainfall amounts in excess of 100 l/qm/24h are likely. S-Itlay may even see a gradually southward sagging MCS with an isolated tornado, large hail and severe wind gust risk. Another area with significant rain is forecast over N/NW-Spain, but QPF maxima keep the risk in a level 1 event.
Given intense deep layer westerly flow over most of the Mediterranean, MUCAPE is forecast to spread well onshore over the Balkan States, Italy and SW-France. Any deeper updraft could take advantage of the favorable kinematics with an isolated tornado, large hail and severe wind gust threat. Models diverge substantially with that convection, so uncertainties remain high.
During the night a developing depression over the SW-Mediterranean results in improving conditions for a few better organized storms over and to the south of the Balearic Islands. The main risk will be strong to severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat. The same for parts of Portugal and Spain, where numerous overnight storms are forecast along a southbound moving cold-front.